Tarkov City Limits

The Progression System in Escape from Tarkov

How the type of or lack of progression system affects risk/reward structure and power gap balance in Escape from Tarkov.

Table of Contents

1) Brief history of the progression system in EFT  

2) A conflict in the community                                

3) A visual recap of the history of the progression

     system in EFT and a proposal for a system  

     that could strike a balance for everyone         

4) A deeper dive into the "Juggernaut meta",    

    "Mosling meta", and a potential new meta      

5) Potential impacts of using a "hybrid              

    progression system                                      

Before we start:

1) This isn't a short read. If you are more interested in being entertained than getting into a lengthy discussion of EFT game mechanics, just scan through the images and captions. Also, feel free to read one section at a time and take breaks.
2) In order to keep this short I am choosing to assume that you already know how the progression system works in EFT -- player levels, Trader loyalty levels, reputation points, barters, the found-in-raid mechanic, etc. If you don't then you will struggle to understand critical aspects of this presentation.

Section 1: Brief history of the progression system in EFT

The Earliest Age

In the beginning EFT had an extremely high-impact progression system that resulted in one very bad thing and one very good thing.

Under this set up players had extremely limited options for accessing high-tier gear and weapons; players either met the progression system requirements and had access to the gear, or they didn't and had to hope they could obtain high-tier gear from either finding it in raid (unlikely or even impossible) or killing a player who brought it into the raid. Meanwhile, high level players had nearly unlimited access to high-tier gear. Players suffered from a horribly unreasonable power gap -- "Juggernauts", high level players with high-tier gear, roamed the earth and were almost unkillable to all except other Juggernauts. It was extremely oppressive to low level players and was a very serious problem.

Footage of a low level vs a high level player in the early days

More footage of low levels barely scratching "Juggernauts"

But, at the same time, players, especially low level players, enjoyed a near perfect risk/reward structure. Yes, it was extremely rare to face a Juggernaut and live but in those rare occasions, when a low level player stood over the body of the Juggernaut he had just killed, the thrill of victory -- fueled by the knowledge of how unlikely that outcome was and how incredibly valuable the loot sitting at his feet was -- was unmatched. It was a "David versus Goliath" experience that brought as high a high as the game could offer.

Killing a high level players was very rare but very exciting

and rewarding -- a "David versus Goliath" experience

Summary of the "first age":
The progression system absolutely dominated. All players were fully subject to it and had extremely limited options for obtaining gear outside of the progression system.

The bad: horribly oppressive power gap -- "Juggernaut meta"
The good: near perfect risk/reward structure -- "Gearing up is worth"

A New Age Begins

Then a new age dawned and everything changed but not "for the better" but only "for the reverse". BSG introduced a solution to the Juggernaut meta that, instead of keeping the "good" parts of the previous meta and fixing the "bad", literally just reversed the "good" and "bad" things -- the once excellent risk/reward structure was thrown out of balance but, at the same time, the power gap was brought into balance. One problem solved but another one created.

The items BSG introduced were the Mosin and the Vepr Hunter and the Flea Market. All of these additions to the game had the same effect -- they caused the entire progression system to be optional by making powerful gear available to low level players at relatively cheap prices and with virtually unlimited supply. Players no longer had to complete a single quest in the progression system to have access to every item in the game beginning as early as level 5.

BSG introduces the Mosin -- a new age begins

The once god-like terrors that roamed the maps, going wherever they pleased with little concern, shrugging off low level attacks with ease, now found themselves facing enemies that were just as lethal as they were but had basically nothing to lose. The age of the Juggernauts was over -- the age of the Moslings (players equipped with nothing but a Mosin or other budget weapon with excellent ammo) had come. Now, a low level player was no longer a low level threat that carried low resell value gear, they were low level players that were medium to high level threats that carried low resell value gear. These very-low-investment-to-high-threat mechanics are what solved the power gap problem but unbalanced the risk/reward structure of EFT.

A Mosling drops a Juggernaut in a single shot

Summary of the "second age":The progression system is completely optional. All players can bypass it and have excellent options for obtaining gear outside of the progression system.

The bad: the risk/reward structure is unbalanced -- "Gearing up is not worth"
The good: almost nonexistent power gap -- low level players are able to kill high level players

And so here we are today playing a game that, as far as the impact of its progression system goes, has gone from one extreme to the other -- participation in the progression system has gone from being basically mandatory to having little impact on the vast majority of the playerbase. Before we move on I am going to point out that, so far, I haven't claimed that one "age" was better than the other; I haven't claimed that "Juggernaut" meta is better or worse than "Mosling" meta or visa versa. I have simply presented a brief history of EFT focusing on the progression system, the power gap balance, and the risk/reward balance.

Section 2: A conflict in the community

I've noticed that the EFT community seems to have decided that, related to risk/reward and the power gap, there are only two choices -- that you either support full progression system dependence or no progression system dependence. In other words, the community seems to be operating on the assumption that you must to pick one side or the other and that there is no third option -- you are either "Team Juggernaut" or "Team Mosling" and that there is no other "team" that you can pick or no way that you can be a fan of both teams or neither team. Even worse than that, it seems to be the prevailing thought is that you must oppose and resist the other team as if they were bad people with bad intentions and that you cannot allow yourself to give the other side a chance or try to explain their point of view. Just to remind everyone -- when I use the terms "Juggernaut" or "Mosling" I am not using them in a derogatory way. I'm not saying they are "bad" or "evil" or even "good" or "better". I'm just using the terms because they are efficient and descriptive. No "hate" here. They are what they are.

This poor EFT community member thought he had to

make a choice between risk/reward and balancing

the power gap and experiences needless suffering.

Obviously, players can be a fan of both a balanced power gap and a balanced risk/reward structure; there are more than two choices when it comes to how EFT handles the progression system in order to balance both the power gap and the risk/reward structure. I believe that we are not stuck with an "either-or" scenario -- we do not have to pick one or the other. It is possible to balance the power gap and the risk/reward structure by using a different approach to the progression system.

BSG can "save" both the power gap and risk/reward

Section 3: A visual recap of the history of the progression
system in EFT and a proposal for a system that could strike
a balance for everyone

In this image, low level players are prevented from accessing high tier gear by the progression

system. High enough level players are "let through". This is what the "first age" was like.

When there are no alternatives to the progression system and players must level up to get access to better gear and the system reserves the best gear for high level players, the power gap becomes unbalanced but the risk/reward structure is balanced; low level players struggle to kill high level players but gear (particularly armor) has value -- Juggernaut meta

The first age ended and the second age began when the Flea Market was introduced.

As you can see in the image above, while low level players are still unable to get

passed the "progression system gatekeeper", they can just bypass it and go

through the Flea market.

When there are alternatives (Flea Market) that allow players to completely bypass the progression system and powerful weapons are available to all players at relatively cheap prices, the power gap becomes balanced but the risk/reward structure becomes unbalanced; low level players do not struggle to kill high level players but gear (particularly armor) loses most of its value -- Mosling Meta



The community seems to divide itself into two factions and resist the ideas of the other side instead of working together towards balancing the game for both the power gap and risk/reward. People pick on of the above ideas and fight against the other even though there are other options.



I believe that there is a "middle ground" between "no alternatives" and "abundant alternatives" to the progression system that allows the game to be balanced for both the power gap and risk/reward. Let's take a look:

In this image, you can see that it is no longer possible for either low or high level

players to access high tier gear using either the progression system or the 

Flea Market. Only players who extract from raids with the needed barter

items can access high tier gear. Note that all players have access to the find-

in-raid-only barters, not just high level players.

When the only way to access AP ammo and Class4+ armor for both low level and

high level players is through expensive "Find-in-Raid-Only" Barters that are

available to everyone at level 1, the game is balanced for both the power gap

 and risk/reward.

Section 4: A deeper dive into the "Juggernaut meta",
"Mosling meta", and a potential new meta

We can understand how using found-in-raid-only barters balances the power gap but also prevents the Flea Market from unbalancing risk/reward by looking at Nofoodaftermidnight's Ammo Chart.

Nofoodaftermidnight has been kind enough to give me permission to use his work. He has more content available at: Twitch, Discord, and Wordpress. Many thanks Mr. Midnight.

A cropped portion of the Ammo Chart
take time to wrap your head around it
(skip down if you are already familiar)

The ammo type is ranked "worst" to "best" from top to bottom -- SP is the "worst", 7n39 is the "best".

Armor class is ranked "worst" to "best" from left to right -- Class 1 is the "worst", Class6 is the "best"

Notice how all types of ammo are good against Class 1 armor? You can tell because the entire column below the "Class 1" header is green and has the number "6".

Compare that to Class 6 armor. Almost the entire column is red and has "0"s -- only BS and 7n39 ammo are effective against it as indicated by the green at the bottom of the "Class 6" column

You can also look horizontally across the chart to see how a specific ammo type does against all the different armor classes. As an example, PS ammo does well against Class 1 and 2, is "okay" against Class 3, and rapidly falls off into "useless" against Class 4 and higher armor.

Let's keep moving.

An example of one type of armor in each class

This is what the "Juggernaut meta" looks like

Same chart as the original but I have "greyed out" some it to make things less cluttered.

Low level players only have access to low tier ammo which only allows them to compete against Class 2 armor -- anyone wearing Class 3 or higher is a "Juggernaut" to them. Notice that the power gap is the widest for low level players. This is a ridiculously unbalanced situation. This "feels bad".

See how the higher level you are, the smaller the power gap becomes? By the time you unlock PP ammo you are experiencing half the power gap that a low level player experiences.

Once you get access to high level ammo as a high level player, there is virtually no power gap. There are no "Juggernauts" if you are high level player -- everyone dies in a few bullets.

Remember, the "Juggernaut meta" happens when there is no way around the progression system -- when the only way to get high tier gear is by leveling up you get the "Juggernaut meta".

This is what the "Mosling meta" looks like

Once the Flea Market was introduced, the leveling system became completely optional. Players could bypass it and simply buy "quest locked" items from the Flea Market. This effectively eliminates the power gap entirely because all players can always access the "best" ammo. In the example above that would mean all players have access to BS and "Igolnik" ammo via the Flea Market.

This is much better for low level players but it unbalances the risk/reward structure of the game and makes it "not worth" for players to spend big money on high tier armor when everyone can kill you in a few shots anyway. The value of gear virtually disappears when everyone can kill everyone easily regardless of how geared they are. This "feels bad".

Also, when players are able to skip progression entirely by using the Flea Market, huge portions of the game content go unused. Nobody is going to use anything but the best in most situations so all those other ammo types are basically wasted.

This "wasted content" scales up and eventually causes entire calibers to go mostly unused -- SMGs, pistols, and shotguns are essentially made unviable and "meme tier" because everyone has access to much better ammo types. When the Flea Market provides access to all gear it negatively impacts weapon and ammo variety and diversity.




So, in summary, one system in which the progression system dominates creates a power gap problem.
The other system which completely bypasses the progression system and gives all players access to all items creates a risk/reward (gear value) problem




My suggestion is that we have a hybrid system that limits the progression system and Flea Market and provides a third option for players to access high tier gear. Lets take a look using the same Ammo Chart example.

This is neither a "progression system dominant" or "Flea Market dominant" system -- the best gear you can access leveling up or using the Flea market is mid tier gear in the form of Class 3 armor and ammo that is somewhat effective against it.

The purple section represents a "boundary" or "limitation" of the progression system and Flea Market. As it is now, there are no limitations on either system the progression system gives players access to all the gear in the game and the Flea Market naturally follows. Removing Class 4 and higher armor and AP ammo from the progression system sets a limit on it and the Flea Market -- it "nerfs" the maximum power of both high level players and Flea Market users.


1) The progression system is still valuable! Players that "grind out" the progression system benefit by:

-- having cheaper access to gear -- the Flea Market is always more expensive than buying straight from the Traders.

-- being able to generate profit by selling this gear on the Flea Market at a premium price.

2) Players that bypass the progression system have access to everything that "max level" players do but they pay a premium for it.

Those two points combined eliminate the "Juggernaut meta" -- low level players will always be able to compete against high level players.



So how do you keep the value of gear from dropping?

We have to remember that the cause of "gear value loss" (risk/reward imbalance) is when something gives all players access to the same gear. For us that is the Flea Market. Because the Flea market allows very low level players to access the same gear as players that are high level, the value of expensive, high level gear drops.

In other words:

High supply of AP ammo + unrestricted purchasing for all players = value of wearing armor drops

So, by limiting the "reach" of the Flea Market to mid tier gear, we preserve all the value of high tier gear.

This is visually represented by the blue area of the chart. The area that is boxed in by the blue border represents gear that is "beyond the reach" of the progression system and Flea Market. The only way for players to access blue area is to play raids and gather barter items.

This changes the equation we saw above:



High supply of AP ammo + unrestricted purchasing for all players = value of wearing armor drops
Low supply of AP ammo + purchasing limited to mid tier gear = value of high tier armor remains


"But it sounds like you are just recreating the "Juggernaut meta"!

No. There is "automatic population control" for both Juggernauts and Moslings built into the system!

Please remember though that because high tier armor has been removed from the progression system and transferred to the found-in-raid barter system, high tier armor and ammo will be rare. This means we won't have to worry about "Juggernauts" eventually overwhelming the game. They will exist but they will always be rare because the supply of necessary gear is limited by the expensive barters.

When the progression system has access to high tier gear and there is no Flea Market, Juggernauts population continually increases making it harder and harder for low level players over time.

When the Flea Market provides access to high tier gear (ammo in particular) to all players, Juggernauts mostly disappear but for bad reasons -- they disappear because it is more efficient to be a Mosling (a low geared player with good ammo) than it is to pay for expensive armor.

Removing high tier gear from progression system + allowing all players to access high tier gear through expensive found-in-raid barters = automatic population control for Juggernauts and Moslings.


Remember:
"Juggernauts" are players that are "unkillable" by low level players or players with low level ammo
"Moslings" are players that are extremely low geared but use extremely powerful ammo (not just people literally using a Mosin).



And now for some extremely rough graphs.

"Juggernaut meta"

When there are no limitation on the progression system

and there is no Flea Market, there is no population control

on Juggernauts and they continually grow in numbers

overtime as more players reach higher levels

"Mosling meta"

Where there is no limitation on the progression system and there

is a Flea Market, there is no population control on Moslings

and they rapidly increase in numbers as more gear becomes

available on the Flea Market

Right now -- because there is no limitation on the progression system and there
is a Flea Market, there are more Moslings than "semi-geared" players and Juggernauts

When limitations are placed on the progressions system they are passed on to the 

Flea Market and when expensive found-in-raid only barters are put in place

the number of Juggernauts are automatically kept in check over time

The barters make is so there simply isn't enough high tier gear coming 

into circulation to allow the Juggernaut population to continually increase.

The aim and goal of my hybrid system is to turn this:

into this:

The goal of the hybrid system is to make it so that the majority of players are playing with mid tier ammo and armor (and the majority of weapon mods) instead of being at either extremes as  Moslings or Juggernauts.


Section 5: The Anatomy of a High-Tier Gear Barter

SECTION IN PROGRESS

By now we have seen how an over emphasis on the progression system leads to a power gap imbalance (Juggernaut meta) and how a risk/reward imbalance (Mosling meta) is created anytime low level players have cheap and abundant access to ammo that allows them to compete against high tier armor. I've also argued that the way to strike a balance between those two extremes is to limit the progression system and Flea Market to mid tier gear and transfer all access to high tier gear out of the progression system by means of "found-in-raid-only" barters. This section will look at the details related to the found-in-raid-only barters (FIROBs).

Remember, the ultimate goal of a FIROB is to reliably control the supply of a specific high tier item so that Mosling/Juggernaut populations remain low, fully geared mid-tier PMC population stays high, and the value of that item stays high.


A FIROB should be "expensive"
A FIROB should not require rare loot
A FIROB must be available to all players beginning at level 1
A FIROB should be randomized periodically

Section 5: Potential impacts of using a "hybrid"                
progression system  

SECTION IN PROGRESS

Map exploration
"Backpack meta"
More interesting looting
Increased TTK (extended firefights)
More geared players
More intense raids
Extended replay value
Increase in weapon diversity
Increase is caliber viability



IN PROGRESS...